87 and counting: prognostication yes, gambling no
i foresaw 87 wins from my plucky twins this year, and i'm happy to report i got 'em. of course, that means i'll be dead wrong if they happen to win any of their remaining fourteen games.i feel better about my prediction for justin morneau. a year ago, i saw a big papi-like future for the young slugger. feeling the ball jump from his bat the past few years, it was easy to see: mr. morneau's got some monster numbers in him and they just gotta get out.
i have many vices, but gambling is not among them. i just get zero kick from the possibility of gaining or losing money on a sporting event. nevertheless, i sometimes check the latest lines and think about betting. for example, when i learned this week that johan santana (18-5, 2.75 ERA) was squaring off against tribe rookie fausto carmona (1-9, 6.24), i figgered it was a sure-thing lock. the line was -252. if i understand this correctly, that means i could have bet $252 on the twins to win $100. so, i imagined ponying up a hypothetical $2,520 to take that easy thousand.
well, johizzle pitched valiantly but my twins lost 5-4 in 10 innings. dang. this gambling thing is tougher than it looks. and i bet the clever folks setting the line have stats ph.d.s and know exactly what they're doing. but then i noticed that my gophers were 41 1/2 point favorites in today's game against temple. after last week's mauling by the cal bears (who were themselves mauled the previous week), i couldn't imagine my favorite college team beating the mounds view high school sophomores by 41 points. were i a gambler, i might have tried to make good on my $2,520 (hypothetical) loss by betting against the ferocious rodents in this game. good thing i'm not a gambler -- the gophers won 62-0.
so, it looks as though a gambling chris would have taken a five thousand dollar bath last week. that settles it. i'll keep rooting for the high schoolers and leave the recreational gaming to the professionals (and the criminals, i suppose). as for my twins, 87 wins and a september pennant race ain't bad at all.
posted by christopher uggen @ 12:11 PM
3 comments
3 Comments:
you and your twins are having their day... as I watch my white sox give away ANOTHER game (the second to oakland) entirely because we have no middle relief.
what I wouldn't give for a starter with nearly 300 strikeouts. as much as I want a white sox v. tigers playoff matchup (because, honestly, the my sox have a better chance against detroit than against the twinkies), if Santana does't get the cy young, I'll be pissed.
Uggen,
Those in the know like dogs in baseball. The best teams in baseball has a winning % slightly below .60 and the worst tend to be around .45 ........ Given those percentages, the premium paid (250 to win 100) to play a heavy favorite is -- over the long haul -- not worth the cost.
Bet the dogs and you only need to be right around 1 time in 3. Those are good odds in baseball.
hey andrew, the cy young would appear to be bagged n' tagged, since no overhyped yankee or bosox is within spitting distance of johizzle this year.
punk, you know that i'd always consult an expert before putting actual dollars at risk (and, of course, that i'd only trust one real expert in such matters). who else has beaten the odds over a full season in a controlled experiment? i'm a believer, my friend.
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